Tennis · M25 Tamworth · 30/10, 00:00
Prediction: Anton Shepp vs Blake Ellis
Team pages: Anton Shepp · Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Anton Shepp
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Anton Shepp
5-5 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anton Shepp 1541 · Blake Ellis 1588
| Anton Shepp | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blake Ellis (rating 1541 vs 1588).
- Anton Shepp dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 52.9% break avg.
- Blake Ellis dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 52.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Anton Shepp | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.4 | 13.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anton Shepp
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/10 | Ethan Cook M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 21/10 | Reece Falck M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/10 | Kristjan Tamm M25 Qian Daohu |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 14/10 | Zichen Shao M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Yanki Erel M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/10 | Taiyo Yamanaka M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Lingxi Zhao M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Sho Shimabukuro Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Harrison Satara M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Herman Hoeyeraal M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Arjun Mehrotra M25 Darwin |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anton Shepp vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 53% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.