Tennis · M25 Tamworth · 29/10, 00:00
Prediction: Harrison Satara vs Blake Ellis
Team pages: Harrison Satara · Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Harrison Satara
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Harrison Satara
6-4 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harrison Satara 1501 · Blake Ellis 1569
| Harrison Satara | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blake Ellis (rating 1501 vs 1569).
- Blake Ellis dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 53.9% break avg.
- Note: Harrison Satara makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Harrison Satara | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.7 | 12.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 53.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harrison Satara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Nikolas Baker M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Sam Ryan Ziegann M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Heaton Pann M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/10 | Jake Delaney M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Hayden Jones M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Alec Braund M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Maksim Shin M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/09 | Geun Jun Kim M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Xiaoyin Yang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Herman Hoeyeraal M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Arjun Mehrotra M25 Darwin |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harrison Satara vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 73% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.