Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 20/10, 11:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas
Team pages: Thiago Monteiro · Alejandro Moro Canas
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Alejandro Moro Canas
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
6-4 (W-L)
Alejandro Moro Canas
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
1–0
Alejandro Moro Canas
(1 last)
- 12 Jul2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1514 · Alejandro Moro Canas 1563
| Thiago Monteiro | Alejandro Moro Canas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Moro Canas (rating 1514 vs 1563).
- Head-to-head: Thiago Monteiro 1–0 Alejandro Moro Canas (1).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Alejandro Moro Canas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-14 | 12-9.5 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 1 – 0 Alejandro Moro Canas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 1–0 Alejandro Moro Canas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/24 Challenger Salzburg | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 05/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/09 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Alejandro Moro Canas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 07/10 | Andrej Martin Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/10 | Kalin Ivanovski Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/10 | Alexander Ritschard M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Sander Jong M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Pedro Vives Marcos M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Bruno Pujol Navarro M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-0 | W |
| 30/09 | David Naharro M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Alejandro Moro Canas?
Our model gives 55% to Alejandro Moro Canas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.