Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 20/10, 11:00
Prediction: Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas
Team pages: Marco Cecchinato · Vilius Gaubas
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Cecchinato
Vilius Gaubas
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Cecchinato
4-6 (W-L)
Vilius Gaubas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marco Cecchinato
0–3
Vilius Gaubas
(3 last)
- 26 Aug0-2 7-12L
- 02 Oct1-2 14-18L
- 08 Jul0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Cecchinato 1473 · Vilius Gaubas 1519
| Marco Cecchinato | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilius Gaubas (rating 1473 vs 1519).
- Head-to-head: Marco Cecchinato 0–3 Vilius Gaubas (3).
Statistics
| Marco Cecchinato | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.3 | 12.7-12 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 31.2% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Marco Cecchinato 0 – 3 Vilius Gaubas (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marco Cecchinato 0–3 Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/26 US Open | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10/25 Challenger Braga | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/07/24 Challenger Trieste | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Cecchinato
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Olle Wallin Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 17/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 15/09 | Henri Squire Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Laslo Djere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Nick Hardt Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Vilius Gaubas US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Liam Broady US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Vilius Gaubas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/10 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Elmer Moller Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 09/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/10 | Joao Domingues Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Hamad Medjedovic Davis Cup |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 28/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 26/08 | Marco Cecchinato US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Cecchinato vs Vilius Gaubas?
Our model gives 59% to Vilius Gaubas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.