Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 20/10, 11:00
Prediction: Diogo Morais vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
Team pages: Diogo Morais · Carlo Alberto Caniato
Prediction summary
Winner
Diogo Morais
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Diogo Morais
6-4 (W-L)
Carlo Alberto Caniato
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diogo Morais 1516 · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1572
| Diogo Morais | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlo Alberto Caniato (rating 1516 vs 1572).
Statistics
| Diogo Morais | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.5 | 12.6-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 5 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diogo Morais
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Alec Deckers M25 Setubal |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/09 | Giulio Perego M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Lucas Poullain M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Max Houkes M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Arthur Nagel M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Yazid Lahjomri M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Romesh Kahatapitiya M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Berto Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diogo Morais vs Carlo Alberto Caniato?
Our model gives 76% to Carlo Alberto Caniato, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.