Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 18/10, 11:30
Prediction: Andrej Martin vs Tiago Cacao
Team pages: Andrej Martin · Tiago Cacao
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrej Martin
Tiago Cacao
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Andrej Martin
5-5 (W-L)
Tiago Cacao
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrej Martin 1500 · Tiago Cacao 1470
| Andrej Martin | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Andrej Martin | Tiago Cacao | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-8.9 | 12.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 2 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 67% |
| Break % | 50% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrej Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 11/10 | Joao Domingues Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Jonas Gundacker Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Manuel Plunger M15 Vienna |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Lorenzo Rottoli M15 Vienna |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Tiago Cacao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Sergi Perez Contri Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 05/10 | Olle Wallin Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/10 | Milos Karol Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Patrick Schoen M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alec Deckers M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Tiago Torres M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Benjamin Thomas George M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrej Martin vs Tiago Cacao?
Our model gives 58% to Andrej Martin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.