Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 18/10, 14:30
Prediction: Kai Wehnelt vs Milos Karol
Team pages: Kai Wehnelt · Milos Karol
Prediction summary
Winner
Kai Wehnelt
Milos Karol
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Kai Wehnelt
5-5 (W-L)
Milos Karol
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kai Wehnelt 1496 · Milos Karol 1507
| Kai Wehnelt | Milos Karol | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Kai Wehnelt dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45.6% break avg.
- Note: Milos Karol makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Kai Wehnelt | Milos Karol | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.4 | 12-12.3 |
| Aces | 6 | 10.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 30.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kai Wehnelt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 12/10 | Alex Marti Pujolras Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 11/10 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/09 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Marcel Zielinski Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Nick Hardt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Milos Karol
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Dali Blanch Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 04/10 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 04/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kai Wehnelt vs Milos Karol?
Our model gives 55% to Milos Karol, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.