Tennis · Challenger Lisbon · 18/10, 14:30
Prediction: Patrick Schoen vs Francisco Rocha
Team pages: Patrick Schoen · Francisco Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
Patrick Schoen
Francisco Rocha
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Patrick Schoen
8-2 (W-L)
Francisco Rocha
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Patrick Schoen
1–0
Francisco Rocha
(1 last)
- 30 Apr2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Schoen 1562 · Francisco Rocha 1429
| Patrick Schoen | Francisco Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patrick Schoen (rating 1562 vs 1429).
- Patrick Schoen is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Patrick Schoen 1–0 Francisco Rocha (1).
Statistics
| Patrick Schoen | Francisco Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-7 | 8.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 64.4% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
H2H · Patrick Schoen 1 – 0 Francisco Rocha (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patrick Schoen 1–0 Francisco Rocha
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 M25 Quinta do Lago | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Schoen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Guilherme Valdoleiros Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Filip Misolic Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/10 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Tiago Cacao M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 18/09 | Robin Bertrand M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Salvador Monteiro M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Francisco Rocha
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Braga · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Lui Maxted Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Michael Agwi M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Salvador Monteiro M25 Setubal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Jack Anthrop M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Joao Dinis Silva M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Julien Penzlin M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Schoen vs Francisco Rocha?
Our model gives 74% to Patrick Schoen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.