Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 21/10, 22:35
Prediction: Gabrielle Leslie vs Tia Messerli
Team pages: Gabrielle Leslie · Tia Messerli
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabrielle Leslie
Tia Messerli
Estimated games
18.6
Recent form · 10 last
Gabrielle Leslie
8-2 (W-L)
Tia Messerli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabrielle Leslie 1585 · Tia Messerli 1493
| Gabrielle Leslie | Tia Messerli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabrielle Leslie (rating 1585 vs 1493).
- Gabrielle Leslie is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Gabrielle Leslie | Tia Messerli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-6.1 | 8.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 1 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 46% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 61.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabrielle Leslie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Savannah Schmitz UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/10 | Madelynn Ludwig UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Lucia Gallegos Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Roxana Valdez Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Kayla Currie Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Susana Souhrada Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Janae George-Alexander Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/03 | Kyle McPhillips W15 Victoriaville |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 02/03 | Catherine Xie W15 Trois-Rivieres |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/01 | Marie Villet W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
Tia Messerli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Madelynn Ludwig UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Savannah Schmitz UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | Mao Mushika W35 Redding |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Tricia Mar UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 07/08 | Kaia Giribalan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Sage Bergeson UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Marley Lambert UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Avery Nguyen W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Monika Ekstrand W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Yulia Zhytelna W15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabrielle Leslie vs Tia Messerli?
Our model gives 58% to Gabrielle Leslie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.