Tennis · Challenger Roanne · 16/10, 20:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Team pages: Matteo Martineau · Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
5-5 (W-L)
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Martineau
1–1
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
(2 last)
- 21 Apr2-1 17-11W
- 25 Jan1-2 15-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1538 · Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 1619
| Matteo Martineau | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (rating 1538 vs 1619).
- Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 49.8% break avg.
- Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Matteo Martineau makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.3 | 12.4-9.4 |
| Aces | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 49.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Martineau 1 – 1 Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Martineau 1–1 Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/25 Challenger Savannah | 2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/01/25 Challenger Quimper | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Etienne Donnet Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Borna Gojo Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Liam Broady Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/10 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 30/09 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 18/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg?
Our model gives 64% to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.