Tennis · M25 Austin · 15/10, 17:00
Prediction: Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Quinn Vandecasteele · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Quinn Vandecasteele
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Quinn Vandecasteele
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Quinn Vandecasteele
1–1
Sebastian Gorzny
(2 last)
- 19 Jul0-2 9-13L
- 18 Jun2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Quinn Vandecasteele 1477 · Sebastian Gorzny 1561
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1477 vs 1561).
- Quinn Vandecasteele dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Note: Quinn Vandecasteele makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Quinn Vandecasteele | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.5 | 14.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Quinn Vandecasteele 1 – 1 Sebastian Gorzny (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Quinn Vandecasteele 1–1 Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 Challenger Bloomfield Hills | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06/24 M25 Tulsa | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Quinn Vandecasteele
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Aryan Shah M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Preston Stearns Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Noah Zamora Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 22/08 | Li Tu ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Edward Winter M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 63% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.