Tennis · M25 Austin · 17/10, 00:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Alastair Gray · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
3-7 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1439 · Sebastian Gorzny 1546
| Alastair Gray | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1439 vs 1546).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7 aces and 47.3% break avg.
- Sebastian Gorzny is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alastair Gray makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13.3 | 13.1-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 35.8% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Li Tu M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Spencer Johnson M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 14/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Maximus Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/08 | George Loffhagen Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 21/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Quinn Vandecasteele M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Edward Winter M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 63% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.