Tennis · M25 Austin · 15/10, 17:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Li Tu
Team pages: Alastair Gray · Li Tu
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Li Tu
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
3-7 (W-L)
Li Tu
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alastair Gray
0–1
Li Tu
(1 last)
- 09 Apr0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1420 · Li Tu 1479
| Alastair Gray | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Li Tu (rating 1420 vs 1479).
- Head-to-head: Alastair Gray 0–1 Li Tu (1).
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.9 | 9.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 34% | 33.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Alastair Gray 0 – 1 Li Tu (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alastair Gray 0–1 Li Tu
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 Challenger Wuning | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Spencer Johnson M25 Austin |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 14/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Maximus Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/08 | George Loffhagen Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 21/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Li Tu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Nicolas Oliveira Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Li Tu?
Our model gives 52% to Li Tu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.