Tennis · Challenger Roanne · 14/10, 20:00
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hugo Gaston
1–1
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
(2 last)
- 28 Feb0-2 7-13L
- 05 Feb2-1 15-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1520 · Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1485
| Hugo Gaston | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hugo Gaston is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Pierre-Hugues Herbert makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.2 | 13.4-13.5 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 31.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.8
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.83
H2H · Hugo Gaston 1 – 1 Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hugo Gaston 1–1 Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Challenger St Brieuc | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/02/24 ATP Marseille | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Daniel Jade Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 28/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 22/08 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Sandro Kopp ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Thiago Monteiro ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 22/06 | Paul Jubb Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 07/06 | Mert Alkaya ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
Our model gives 61% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.