Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 14/10, 12:30
Prediction: Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
Team pages: Ariana Geerlings · Lucia Cortez Llorca
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Geerlings
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Geerlings
6-4 (W-L)
Lucia Cortez Llorca
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ariana Geerlings
2–2
Lucia Cortez Llorca
(4 last)
- 13 Sept1-2 12-18L
- 03 Oct2-1 15-12W
- 08 Jun1-2 11-14L
- 02 Dec2-1 14-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Geerlings 1540 · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1564
| Ariana Geerlings | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ariana Geerlings makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Geerlings | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.1 | 12.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 57.7% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 63.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Ariana Geerlings 2 – 2 Lucia Cortez Llorca (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana Geerlings 2–2 Lucia Cortez Llorca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/26 W35 Reus | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/10/24 W35 Baza | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 08/06/24 WTA Valencia | 1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/12/22 ITF W15 Valencia | 2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Geerlings
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Tea Kovacevic WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/10 | Aurora Zantedeschi W35 Seville |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Seville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09 | Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Amandine Hesse W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Freya Peet W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/09 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Bytom |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann W35 Seville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Angelica Sara W35 Seville |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia W35 Seville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09 | Kira Pavlova W50 Yecla |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Alicia Herrero Linana WTA Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/09 | Ariana Geerlings W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 12/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Our model gives 56% to Ariana Geerlings, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.