Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 17/10, 10:00

Prediction: Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi

Team pages: Ariana Geerlings · Francesca Curmi

Prediction summary

Winner

50% 50%

Ariana Geerlings Francesca Curmi

Estimated games

22.2

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana Geerlings 8-2 (W-L)

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Francesca Curmi 5-5 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Ariana Geerlings 0–1 Francesca Curmi (1 last)

23 Mar1-2 12-13L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana Geerlings 1566 · Francesca Curmi 1536

	Ariana Geerlings	Francesca Curmi
Our model	54%	46%
Market	46%	54%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Head-to-head: Ariana Geerlings 0–1 Francesca Curmi (1).
Note: Ariana Geerlings makes many double faults (4.4/match).

Statistics

	Ariana Geerlings	Francesca Curmi
Win %	70%	60%
Win % · Clay	75% (8)	67% (6)
Sets (G-P)	1.6-0.6	1.4-1.2
Games (G-P)	11.5-9.1	13.2-10.6
Aces	0.7	0.8
Double faults	4.4	2.7
1st serve %	61.7%	60.2%
Break %	49.2%	59.1%

Estimated total games (ours) 22.2

H2H · Ariana Geerlings 0 – 1 Francesca Curmi (1)

Odds Bet365

12.00

21.73

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	2
19:28 +9’	2.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana Geerlings 0–1 Francesca Curmi

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
23/03/22 ITF W15 Palmanova	1-2	12-13	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana Geerlings

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
16/10	Julia Grabher WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
14/10	Lucia Cortez Llorca WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
13/10	Tea Kovacevic WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
07/10	Aurora Zantedeschi W35 Seville	1-2	11-15	L
06/10	Laura Boehner W35 Seville	2-0	13-9	W
15/09	Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay	0-2	5-12	L
13/09	Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay	1-2	12-18	L
12/09	Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
11/09	Amandine Hesse W35 Reus · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
10/09	Freya Peet W35 Reus · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W

Francesca Curmi

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
16/10	Elizara Yaneva WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-1	16-11	W
14/10	Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-1	15-12	W
12/10	Eva Vedder WTA Mallorca · Clay	2-1	17-11	W
09/10	Alisa Oktiabreva W50 Heraklion · ~Hard	0-2	10-13	L
08/10	Miriam Bulgaru W50 Heraklion · ~Hard	2-0	12-4	W
06/10	Maayan Laron W50 Heraklion · ~Hard	2-0	12-1	W
16/09	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur WTA Valencia · Clay	1-2	14-18	L
14/09	Veronika Erjavec WTA Valencia · Clay	2-1	14-9	W
07/09	Nuria Brancaccio WTA Montreux · Clay	0-2	9-13	L
01/08	Berfu Cengiz W100 Gran Canaria	1-2	13-14	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana Geerlings vs Francesca Curmi?

Our model gives 50% to Ariana Geerlings, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.