Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 18/10, 10:00
Prediction: Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samsonova
Team pages: Ariana Geerlings · Laura Samsonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Geerlings
Laura Samsonova
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Geerlings
8-2 (W-L)
Laura Samsonova
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Geerlings 1568 · Laura Samsonova 1549
| Ariana Geerlings | Laura Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ariana Geerlings makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Laura Samsonova makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Geerlings | Laura Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.2 | 12.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 62.9% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 55.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Geerlings
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Francesca Curmi WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/10 | Julia Grabher WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/10 | Lucia Cortez Llorca WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Tea Kovacevic WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/10 | Aurora Zantedeschi W35 Seville |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Seville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09 | Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Amandine Hesse W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Laura Samsonova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Lucie Nguyen Tan WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/10 | Aran Teixido Garcia WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/09 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Tolentino · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Samira De Stefano WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Weronika Falkowska WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Tamara Zidansek US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 04/08 | Mona Barthel WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samsonova?
Our model gives 55% to Laura Samsonova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.