Tennis · M25 Austin · 14/10, 17:00
Prediction: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Tomasz Berkieta
Team pages: Roger Pascual Ferra · Tomasz Berkieta
Prediction summary
Winner
Roger Pascual Ferra
Tomasz Berkieta
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Roger Pascual Ferra
6-4 (W-L)
Tomasz Berkieta
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roger Pascual Ferra 1472 · Tomasz Berkieta 1515
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomasz Berkieta (rating 1472 vs 1515).
- Note: Tomasz Berkieta makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Tomasz Berkieta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11.2 | 10.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roger Pascual Ferra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 13/09 | Li Tu Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 16/08 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Aidan Mayo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Colton Smith ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Tomasz Berkieta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Dominik Kellovsky Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Patrick Zahraj M25 Metzingen |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Iannis Miletich M25 Metzingen |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Oleksii Krutykh M15 Uslar |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Uslar |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Liam Gavrielides M15 Uslar |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Vito Tonejc M15 Uslar |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roger Pascual Ferra vs Tomasz Berkieta?
Our model gives 58% to Roger Pascual Ferra, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.