Tennis · M25 Austin · 13/10, 20:00
Prediction: Aidan Mchugh vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Aidan Mchugh · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mchugh
Karl Poling
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mchugh
8-2 (W-L)
Karl Poling
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aidan Mchugh
0–1
Karl Poling
(1 last)
- 06 Jul0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mchugh 1610 · Karl Poling 1455
| Aidan Mchugh | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1610 vs 1455).
- Aidan Mchugh is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aidan Mchugh 0–1 Karl Poling (1).
Statistics
| Aidan Mchugh | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 14% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-7.9 | 13.5-14 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 33.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Aidan Mchugh 0 – 1 Karl Poling (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aidan Mchugh 0–1 Karl Poling
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/24 M25 Laval | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mchugh
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Martin Riu M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Reco M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/09 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | David Eichenseher M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Matteo Mesaglio M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei M25 Pozzuoli |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Karl Poling
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 21/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mchugh vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 64% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.