Tennis · M25 Austin · 13/10, 20:00
Prediction: Sebastian Gorzny vs Edward Winter
Team pages: Sebastian Gorzny · Edward Winter
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Gorzny
Edward Winter
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Gorzny
5-5 (W-L)
Edward Winter
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Gorzny 1555 · Edward Winter 1469
| Sebastian Gorzny | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1555 vs 1469).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 47.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Sebastian Gorzny | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-12.6 | 10.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 64% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 40.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Keegan Smith Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/08 | John Chin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Steven Christie Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/08 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/08 | Gavin Young Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Gorzny vs Edward Winter?
Our model gives 64% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.