Tennis · M25 Austin · 13/10, 20:00
Prediction: Alastair Gray vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Alastair Gray · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Alastair Gray
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Alastair Gray
4-6 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alastair Gray 1429 · Spencer Johnson 1522
| Alastair Gray | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1429 vs 1522).
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alastair Gray | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12 | 12.9-10.6 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alastair Gray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Maximus Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/08 | George Loffhagen Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 21/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Patrick Brady Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Jakub Vrba Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Jan Kobierski Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alastair Gray vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 62% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.