Tennis · W100 Edmond · 14/10, 17:00
Prediction: Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko
Team pages: Nadia Podoroska · Varvara Lepchenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Nadia Podoroska
Varvara Lepchenko
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nadia Podoroska
6-4 (W-L)
Varvara Lepchenko
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nadia Podoroska 1537 · Varvara Lepchenko 1451
| Nadia Podoroska | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nadia Podoroska (rating 1537 vs 1451).
- Nadia Podoroska is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Nadia Podoroska makes many double faults (6.9/match).
- Note: Varvara Lepchenko makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Nadia Podoroska | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12 | 10.3-12.2 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 65% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nadia Podoroska
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/09 | Paula Badosa WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/09 | Suzan Lamens WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/09 | Eva Lys WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Anna Blinkova WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Ena Koike WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Iga Swiatek US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Simona Waltert US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Ulrikke Eikeri WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Claire Liu WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Katrina Scott WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Gabriela Knutson US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Emerson Jones WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 25/07 | Clervie Ngounoue WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nadia Podoroska vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Our model gives 64% to Nadia Podoroska, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.