Tennis · M15 Heraklion · 13/10, 08:30
Prediction: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Jose Dominguez Alonso
Team pages: Pavlos Tsitsipas · Jose Dominguez Alonso
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Jose Dominguez Alonso
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pavlos Tsitsipas
2-8 (W-L)
Jose Dominguez Alonso
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavlos Tsitsipas
1–0
Jose Dominguez Alonso
(1 last)
- 03 Sept2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1484 · Jose Dominguez Alonso 1529
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Jose Dominguez Alonso | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jose Dominguez Alonso (rating 1484 vs 1529).
- Head-to-head: Pavlos Tsitsipas 1–0 Jose Dominguez Alonso (1).
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Jose Dominguez Alonso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-14.3 | 10.7-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 6 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 61.2% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1 – 0 Jose Dominguez Alonso (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1–0 Jose Dominguez Alonso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/25 M15 Madrid | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Nicholas Campbell M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 21/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 13/09 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Niccolo Catini M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Matyas Kozlovsky M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Jose Dominguez Alonso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Peter Makk M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Jip Van Assendelft M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Dylan Leeman M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Yanaki Milev M25 Oviedo |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/08 | Mario Mansilla Diez M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M25 Oviedo |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/08 | Bernardo Tedesco M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 02/07 | Walid Ahouda M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Othman Bezzaz M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Jose Dominguez Alonso?
Our model gives 57% to Pavlos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.