Tennis · M15 Heraklion · 22/10, 08:00
Prediction: Julio Cesar Porras vs Pavlos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Julio Cesar Porras · Pavlos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Julio Cesar Porras
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Julio Cesar Porras
7-3 (W-L)
Pavlos Tsitsipas
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Julio Cesar Porras
1–0
Pavlos Tsitsipas
(1 last)
- 23 Apr2-1 16-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Julio Cesar Porras 1559 · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1474
| Julio Cesar Porras | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Julio Cesar Porras (rating 1559 vs 1474).
- Julio Cesar Porras is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Julio Cesar Porras 1–0 Pavlos Tsitsipas (1).
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Julio Cesar Porras | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.8 | 11.7-13.7 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Julio Cesar Porras 1 – 0 Pavlos Tsitsipas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Julio Cesar Porras 1–0 Pavlos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/25 M15 Sanxenxo | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Julio Cesar Porras
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Alexander Vasilev M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Snir Morag M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/10 | Mateo Martinez M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Pontevedra |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado M15 Pontevedra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Raphael Perot M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Clement Lemire M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexandre Reco M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/07 | Mathieu Scaglia M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Pavlos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Alexandre Aubriot M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Nicholas Campbell M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 21/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 13/09 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Niccolo Catini M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Julio Cesar Porras vs Pavlos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 70% to Julio Cesar Porras, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.