Tennis · Challenger Roanne · 12/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris
Team pages: Lucas Poullain · Tom Paris
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Poullain
Tom Paris
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Poullain
4-6 (W-L)
Tom Paris
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucas Poullain
3–1
Tom Paris
(4 last)
- 10 Mar2-0 13-10W
- 06 Feb0-2 9-13L
- 24 Sept2-1 15-13W
- 16 Jan2-1 19-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Poullain 1531 · Tom Paris 1461
| Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Poullain (rating 1531 vs 1461).
- Head-to-head: Lucas Poullain 3–1 Tom Paris (4).
Statistics
| Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-10.7 | 10.3-12 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.2% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 29.5% | 31.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Lucas Poullain 3 – 1 Tom Paris (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucas Poullain 3–1 Tom Paris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Challenger Cherbourg | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/02/25 Challenger Lille | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/09/23 Challenger Orleans | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/01/23 M15 Bressuire | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/10 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Mark Lajal Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Tom Paris
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 27/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/04 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/04 | Yunseong Chung Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 06/04 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/03 | Raphael Perot M25 Toulouse |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 19/03 | Kenny de Schepper M25 Toulouse |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 17/03 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Toulouse |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris?
Our model gives 66% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.