Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 13/10, 11:00
Prediction: Tea Kovacevic vs Ariana Geerlings
Team pages: Tea Kovacevic · Ariana Geerlings
Prediction summary
Winner
Tea Kovacevic
Ariana Geerlings
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Tea Kovacevic
4-6 (W-L)
Ariana Geerlings
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tea Kovacevic 1456 · Ariana Geerlings 1530
| Tea Kovacevic | Ariana Geerlings | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Geerlings (rating 1456 vs 1530).
- Ariana Geerlings is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Tea Kovacevic makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Ariana Geerlings makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Tea Kovacevic | Ariana Geerlings | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.1 | 11.6-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 58.9% | 57.6% |
| Break % | 58.7% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tea Kovacevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Rikke De Koning W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-9 | L |
| 15/07 | Alja Senica W15 Krsko |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Tian Jialin W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/07 | Adela Polakovicova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 02/07 | Jana Bojovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Eleejah Inisan W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-1 | W |
| 16/06 | Stefania Bojica W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Andrea Obradovic W15 Banja Luka · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 02/06 | Luisa Schruff W15 Banja Luka · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Armine Yesaian W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Ariana Geerlings
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Aurora Zantedeschi W35 Seville |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Seville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W35 Reus · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/09 | Francesca Pace W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Amandine Hesse W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Freya Peet W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/09 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Bytom |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Anastasia Zolotareva W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tea Kovacevic vs Ariana Geerlings?
Our model gives 75% to Ariana Geerlings, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.