Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 13/10, 11:00
Prediction: Julia Grabher vs Deborah Chiesa
Team pages: Julia Grabher · Deborah Chiesa
Prediction summary
Winner
Julia Grabher
Deborah Chiesa
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Julia Grabher
4-6 (W-L)
Deborah Chiesa
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Julia Grabher
1–0
Deborah Chiesa
(1 last)
- 30 Sept2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Julia Grabher 1556 · Deborah Chiesa 1488
| Julia Grabher | Deborah Chiesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Julia Grabher (rating 1556 vs 1488).
- Julia Grabher is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Julia Grabher 1–0 Deborah Chiesa (1).
- Note: Julia Grabher makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Julia Grabher | Deborah Chiesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.4 | 10.9-12.4 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 60.6% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 53.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Julia Grabher 1 – 0 Deborah Chiesa (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Julia Grabher 1–0 Deborah Chiesa
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/25 WTA Rende | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Julia Grabher
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Dalma Galfi WTA Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales WTA Tolentino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Tolentino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Nuria Brancaccio WTA Tolentino · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Alice Tubello WTA Tolentino · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Jennifer Ruggeri WTA Tolentino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Fiona Crawley WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Deborah Chiesa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Lisa Zaar W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Marta Lombardini W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/10 | Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 07/09 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Montreux · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Diana Martynov WTA Montreux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jana Kovackova W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 12/08 | Anastasia Zolotareva W50 Hamburg |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Eva Bennemann W75 Koksijde |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Andreea Prisacariu WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Julia Grabher vs Deborah Chiesa?
Our model gives 63% to Julia Grabher, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.