Tennis · Challenger Roanne · 11/10, 14:30
Prediction: Jakub Paul vs Niels McDonald
Team pages: Jakub Paul · Niels McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Jakub Paul
Niels McDonald
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Jakub Paul
5-5 (W-L)
Niels McDonald
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jakub Paul 1494 · Niels McDonald 1459
| Jakub Paul | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jakub Paul | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-10.8 | 8.8-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jakub Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Michele Mecarelli Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/05 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 11/05 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/03 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Marrakech · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Naples · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/03 | John Sperle Challenger Naples · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/03 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Naples · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Zaccharie Cado Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Jerome Kym Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jakub Paul vs Niels McDonald?
Our model gives 54% to Jakub Paul, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.