Tennis · Challenger Roanne · 11/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lucas Poullain vs Gijs Brouwer
Team pages: Lucas Poullain · Gijs Brouwer
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Poullain
Gijs Brouwer
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Poullain
3-7 (W-L)
Gijs Brouwer
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucas Poullain
2–0
Gijs Brouwer
(2 last)
- 08 Aug2-0 12-1W
- 24 Mar2-1 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Poullain 1544 · Gijs Brouwer 1453
| Lucas Poullain | Gijs Brouwer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Poullain (rating 1544 vs 1453).
- Head-to-head: Lucas Poullain 2–0 Gijs Brouwer (2).
- Note: Gijs Brouwer makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Lucas Poullain | Gijs Brouwer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.9 | 9.3-13 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 56% |
| Break % | 29.2% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Lucas Poullain 2 – 0 Gijs Brouwer (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucas Poullain 2–0 Gijs Brouwer
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Challenger Istanbul | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/03/26 M25 Saint Dizier | 2-1 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Poullain
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Mark Lajal Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Michael Geerts Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Gijs Brouwer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Timeo Trufelli M15 Rodez |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Poullain vs Gijs Brouwer?
Our model gives 68% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.