Tennis · WTA Mallorca · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Lia Karatancheva vs Ida Wobker

Team pages: Lia Karatancheva · Ida Wobker

Prediction summary

Winner

42% 58%

Lia Karatancheva Ida Wobker

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Lia Karatancheva 4-6 (W-L)

LLWWLWWLLL

Ida Wobker 8-2 (W-L)

WWWWWWWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lia Karatancheva 1417 · Ida Wobker 1546

	Lia Karatancheva	Ida Wobker
Our model	32%	68%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ida Wobker (rating 1417 vs 1546).
Ida Wobker is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Note: Ida Wobker makes many double faults (5.7/match).

Statistics

	Lia Karatancheva	Ida Wobker
Win %	20%	70%
Win % · Clay	0% (3)	80% (5)
Sets (G-P)	0.6-1.7	1.5-0.6
Games (G-P)	9.2-12.1	10.9-8.5
Aces	1	1.7
Double faults	3.7	5.7
1st serve %	53.1%	62.2%
Break %	44.9%	56.6%

Estimated total games (ours) 21

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
23:15 +19’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lia Karatancheva

WWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
07/10	Luisina Giovannini W50 Burgas	0-2	6-12	L
22/09	Jule Niemeier W50 Plovdiv	0-2	4-12	L
17/09	Ipek Oz W50 Pazardzhik	0-2	9-13	L
16/09	Beatrise Zeltina W50 Pazardzhik	2-0	12-3	W
15/09	Jule Niemeier W50 Pazardzhik	2-1	19-14	W
02/09	Federica Urgesi W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer	0-2	2-12	L
26/08	Ksenia Zaytseva W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	1-2	11-18	L
16/08	Ikumi Yamazaki W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · ~Clay	1-2	16-15	L
11/08	Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	7-10	L
04/08	Zuzanna Pawlikowska WTA Warsaw · Hard	0-2	6-12	L

Ida Wobker

WWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
06/10	Daria Yesypchuk W35 Seville	0-2	4-12	L
16/08	Maria Sara Popa W15 Bucharest · ~Clay	0-2	8-12	L
15/08	Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
14/08	Oana Georgeta Simion W15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
13/08	Carolina Kuhl W15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
12/08	Iulia Maria Buculei W15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
09/08	Irene Burillo Escorihuela W75 Leipzig	1-2	11-18	L
08/08	Aneta Laboutkova W75 Leipzig	2-0	12-7	W
07/08	Aurora Zantedeschi W75 Leipzig	2-0	12-7	W
06/08	Nastasja Schunk W75 Leipzig	2-0	12-5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lia Karatancheva vs Ida Wobker?

Our model gives 58% to Ida Wobker, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.