Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valentin Vacherot
0–1
Arthur Fils
(1 last)
- 24 Mar1-2 15-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1516 · Arthur Fils 1618
| Valentin Vacherot | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Fils (rating 1516 vs 1618).
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 52% break avg.
- Arthur Fils is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Valentin Vacherot 0–1 Arthur Fils (1).
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.9-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-13.7 | 13.8-9.2 |
| Aces | 11.1 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 23.5% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.4
Over 22.5: 66% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 34% · 1.72
H2H · Valentin Vacherot 0 – 1 Arthur Fils (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valentin Vacherot 0–1 Arthur Fils
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Luca Van Assche ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Martin Damm ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 71% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.