Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Estimated games
27.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
4-6 (W-L)
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1519 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1530
| Matteo Berrettini | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matteo Berrettini dominates on serve: 13.7 aces and 42.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1.4 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.7-18.1 | 13.4-13.6 |
| Aces | 13.7 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5
Over 22.5: 81% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 19% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Jie Cui ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Ignacio Buse Davis Cup |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 19/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Gael Monfils US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 9-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
Our model gives 53% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.