Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1564 · Alejandro Tabilo 1490
| Denis Shapovalov | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1564 vs 1490).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 10.4 aces and 49.9% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-12.4 | 12.9-13.6 |
| Aces | 10.4 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 28.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.9
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 60% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.