Tennis · Challenger Porto · 02/10, 14:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Henrique Rocha
Team pages: August Holmgren · Henrique Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Henrique Rocha
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Henrique Rocha
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1479 · Henrique Rocha 1538
| August Holmgren | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henrique Rocha (rating 1479 vs 1538).
- August Holmgren dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 44.5% break avg.
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.4 | 12.3-9.8 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Henrique Rocha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/09 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Michael Mmoh US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Seong Chan Hong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Henrique Rocha?
Our model gives 62% to Henrique Rocha, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.