Tennis · Challenger Porto · 30/09, 10:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Andrea Guerrieri
Team pages: August Holmgren · Andrea Guerrieri
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Andrea Guerrieri
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Andrea Guerrieri
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
August Holmgren
0–1
Andrea Guerrieri
(1 last)
- 24 Aug1-2 12-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1476 · Andrea Guerrieri 1536
| August Holmgren | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Guerrieri (rating 1476 vs 1536).
- August Holmgren dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: August Holmgren 0–1 Andrea Guerrieri (1).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.6 | 13.1-12.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
H2H · August Holmgren 0 – 1 Andrea Guerrieri (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · August Holmgren 0–1 Andrea Guerrieri
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/26 US Open | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Andrea Guerrieri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | August Holmgren US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Andrea Guerrieri?
Our model gives 56% to Andrea Guerrieri, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.