Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
9-1 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Fils
2–0
Frances Tiafoe
(2 last)
- 23 Aug2-1 13-9W
- 24 Mar2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1607 · Frances Tiafoe 1600
| Arthur Fils | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 53.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Arthur Fils 2–0 Frances Tiafoe (2).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.7 | 2.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-9.1 | 17.6-15.3 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3
Over 22.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.83
H2H · Arthur Fils 2 – 0 Frances Tiafoe (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fils 2–0 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Luca Van Assche ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Martin Damm ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Kei Nishikori ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 62% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.