Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 02/10, 02:00
Prediction: Kanata Ozaki vs Ryotaro Matsumura
Team pages: Kanata Ozaki · Ryotaro Matsumura
Prediction summary
Winner
Kanata Ozaki
Ryotaro Matsumura
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Kanata Ozaki
5-5 (W-L)
Ryotaro Matsumura
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kanata Ozaki 1513 · Ryotaro Matsumura 1586
| Kanata Ozaki | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryotaro Matsumura (rating 1513 vs 1586).
- Ryotaro Matsumura is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Kanata Ozaki makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Kanata Ozaki | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-9.6 | 11.6-7.8 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 71.5% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kanata Ozaki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Sota Kambara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomoki Fujiwara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/09 | Raffael Gasanov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Ke Hau Hung UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Genki Fukushima UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/09 | Haru Kawanaka UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Ke Hau Hung UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Kai Milburn UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Shingo Masuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/03 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/03 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/03 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/03 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kanata Ozaki vs Ryotaro Matsumura?
Our model gives 72% to Ryotaro Matsumura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.