Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 04/10, 03:30
Prediction: Kotaro Mochizuki vs Ryotaro Matsumura
Team pages: Kotaro Mochizuki · Ryotaro Matsumura
Prediction summary
Winner
Kotaro Mochizuki
Ryotaro Matsumura
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Kotaro Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Ryotaro Matsumura
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kotaro Mochizuki
0–7
Ryotaro Matsumura
(7 last)
- 04 Sept0-2 9-13L
- 04 Feb0-2 7-13L
- 31 Jan0-2 9-13L
- 29 Nov1-2 16-18L
- 24 May0-2 7-12L
- 23 Feb0-2 3-12L
- 07 Jan0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kotaro Mochizuki 1536 · Ryotaro Matsumura 1579
| Kotaro Mochizuki | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryotaro Matsumura (rating 1536 vs 1579).
- Head-to-head: Kotaro Mochizuki 0–7 Ryotaro Matsumura (7).
Statistics
| Kotaro Mochizuki | Ryotaro Matsumura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10 | 11.3-9.3 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 54.8% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Kotaro Mochizuki 0 – 7 Ryotaro Matsumura (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kotaro Mochizuki 0–7 Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/26 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/02/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/01/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/11/25 UTR Pro Kakogawa | 1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 24/05/25 UTR Pro Urayasu | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/02/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/01/25 UTR Pro Noda | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kotaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Wulfrano Martinez Mora Esdras UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/09 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/09 | Abdumalik Kamalov UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Mirgiiaz Mirdzhaliev UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Masaki Ishikawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Kawada UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/09 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Ryotaro Matsumura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Ryotaro Matsumura
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Kanata Ozaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Shingo Masuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/03 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/03 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kotaro Mochizuki vs Ryotaro Matsumura?
Our model gives 70% to Ryotaro Matsumura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.