Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
6-4 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1508 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1573
| Valentin Vacherot | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1508 vs 1573).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-13.3 | 15.5-13.2 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 19.5% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.7
Over 23.5: 62% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 38% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Alexander Blockx ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Otto Virtanen Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Eero Vasa Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Norbert Gombos Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Arthur Fils US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 27/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 60% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.