Tennis · Challenger Porto · 01/10, 12:00
Prediction: Toby Samuel vs Jerome Kym
Team pages: Toby Samuel · Jerome Kym
Prediction summary
Winner
Toby Samuel
Jerome Kym
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Toby Samuel
5-5 (W-L)
Jerome Kym
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toby Samuel 1574 · Jerome Kym 1518
| Toby Samuel | Jerome Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1574 vs 1518).
- Jerome Kym dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Note: Jerome Kym makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Toby Samuel | Jerome Kym | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-9.7 | 13.1-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 55.5% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Andy Andrade Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Tomas Machac US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Billy Harris US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Francesco Maestrelli US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Jerome Kym
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Tiago Torres Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/08 | Colton Smith US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Dan Added US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/08 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Elmer Moller Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Max Houkes Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Niels McDonald Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toby Samuel vs Jerome Kym?
Our model gives 60% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.