Prediction: Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Kei Nishikori · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Kei Nishikori
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kei Nishikori
5-5 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kei Nishikori
1–0
Frances Tiafoe
(1 last)
- 23 Oct2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kei Nishikori 1495 · Frances Tiafoe 1601
| Kei Nishikori | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1495 vs 1601).
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Kei Nishikori 1–0 Frances Tiafoe (1).
Statistics
| Kei Nishikori | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 2.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.3 | 17.6-15.2 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 37.8% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +5.1
Over 20.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 18% · 1.83
H2H · Kei Nishikori 1 – 0 Frances Tiafoe (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kei Nishikori 1–0 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/18 ATP Vienna | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kei Nishikori
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Michael Antonius US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Sebastian Ofner US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 71% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.