Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Alejandro Tabilo · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
27.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
0–2
Tommy Paul
(2 last)
- 06 Oct1-2 15-19L
- 20 Jun0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1505 · Tommy Paul 1552
| Alejandro Tabilo | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1505 vs 1552).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 47% break avg.
- Tommy Paul is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 0–2 Tommy Paul (2).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.8 | 16.6-14.8 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 29.2% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.2
Over 22.5: 82% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 18% · 1.80
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 0 – 2 Tommy Paul (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 0–2 Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 20/06/24 ATP Queens | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 66% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.