Prediction: Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro
Team pages: Denis Shapovalov · Sho Shimabukuro
Prediction summary
Winner
Denis Shapovalov
Sho Shimabukuro
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Sho Shimabukuro
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Denis Shapovalov 1578 · Sho Shimabukuro 1458
| Denis Shapovalov | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1578 vs 1458).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 9 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Denis Shapovalov | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-12.6 | 11-12 |
| Aces | 9 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.7
Over 21.5: 68% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 32% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro?
Our model gives 73% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.