Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Matteo Arnaldi · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Arnaldi
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Arnaldi
6-4 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Arnaldi
1–0
Rei Sakamoto
(1 last)
- 02 Oct2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Arnaldi 1483 · Rei Sakamoto 1512
| Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 46.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Arnaldi 1–0 Rei Sakamoto (1).
- Note: Matteo Arnaldi makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.7 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-16.3 | 13.9-13 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 12.9 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 78.6% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 38.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.2
Over 23.5: 65% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 35% · 1.80
H2H · Matteo Arnaldi 1 – 0 Rei Sakamoto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Arnaldi 1–0 Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 53% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.