Prediction: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini
Team pages: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Matteo Berrettini
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Matteo Berrettini
Estimated games
28.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
9-1 (W-L)
Matteo Berrettini
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1–1
Matteo Berrettini
(2 last)
- 04 Sept2-3 23-26L
- 13 Apr2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1591 · Matteo Berrettini 1507
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (rating 1591 vs 1507).
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 41.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-0.6 | 2.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-12.2 | 20.4-19.5 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 14.1 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 80.4% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +4.9
Over 23.5: 81% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 19% · 1.80
H2H · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 1 Matteo Berrettini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1–1 Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/22 US Open | 2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 13/04/21 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-31 | L |
| 03/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model gives 59% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.