Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
6-4 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
1–4
Ugo Humbert
(5 last)
- 28 Oct1-2 13-16L
- 27 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 05 Jul1-3 22-26L
- 07 May2-0 12-6W
- 24 Aug0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1577 · Ugo Humbert 1479
| Brandon Nakashima | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1577 vs 1479).
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 1–4 Ugo Humbert (5).
- Note: Ugo Humbert makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-12 | 12.9-12.7 |
| Aces | 10.9 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 1 – 4 Ugo Humbert (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 1–4 Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/24 ATP Paris | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 07/05/22 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/08/18 US Open | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Jakub Mensik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Ugo Humbert
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 28/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 66% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.