Tennis · Challenger Porto · 29/09, 12:00
Prediction: Hugo Grenier vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Team pages: Hugo Grenier · Carl Emil Overbeck
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Grenier
Carl Emil Overbeck
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Grenier
4-6 (W-L)
Carl Emil Overbeck
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Grenier 1471 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1544
| Hugo Grenier | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1471 vs 1544).
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Hugo Grenier makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Hugo Grenier | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.4 | 11.6-9.9 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/09 | Christian Langmo Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Roman Safiullin ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Neil Oberleitner ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/08 | Dali Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Grenier vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 57% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.