Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 28/09, 13:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
6-4 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hubert Hurkacz
5–1
Denis Shapovalov
(6 last)
- 31 May3-1 23-16W
- 20 Jan3-2 24-25W
- 29 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 17 Mar0-2 7-12L
- 24 Aug2-0 12-7W
- 13 Mar2-1 15-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1621 · Denis Shapovalov 1571
| Hubert Hurkacz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1621 vs 1571).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.3 aces and 42.6% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 9 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 5–1 Denis Shapovalov (6).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.5-12.2 | 15.6-12.6 |
| Aces | 13.3 | 9 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +0.7
Over 24.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 45% · 1.90
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 5 – 1 Denis Shapovalov (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 5–1 Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/24 French Open | 3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 20/01/23 Australian Open | 3-2 | 24-25 | W |
| 29/03/21 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/03/21 ATP Dubai | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08/19 ATP Winston-Salem | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/03/19 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 58% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.