Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 27/09, 07:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
1–3
Denis Shapovalov
(4 last)
- 13 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 31 Jul0-2 3-12L
- 26 Oct2-1 16-9W
- 12 Aug1-2 13-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1488 · Denis Shapovalov 1564
| Adrian Mannarino | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denis Shapovalov (rating 1488 vs 1564).
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 48.9% break avg.
- Denis Shapovalov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 1–3 Denis Shapovalov (4).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.8-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.5 | 15-12 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 32.9% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.2
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.90
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 1 – 3 Denis Shapovalov (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 1–3 Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/07/24 ATP Washington | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/10/17 ATP Basel | 2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 12/08/17 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-21 | W |
| 26/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Vit Kopriva ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 66% to Denis Shapovalov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.