Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 27/09, 08:00
Prediction: Lloyd Harris vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Lloyd Harris · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Lloyd Harris
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lloyd Harris
1–1
Hubert Hurkacz
(2 last)
- 29 Mar0-2 8-13L
- 13 Jun2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lloyd Harris 1590 · Hubert Hurkacz 1584
| Lloyd Harris | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 14.3 aces and 54.2% break avg.
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 41.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Lloyd Harris | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.7 | 1.9-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-12.4 | 15.4-11.8 |
| Aces | 14.3 | 13.2 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 80.4% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 25.5
Over 25.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 52% · 1.83
H2H · Lloyd Harris 1 – 1 Hubert Hurkacz (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lloyd Harris 1–1 Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/22 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06/17 Challenger Lisbon | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/09 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 30/08 | Jack Kennedy US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Henrique Rocha US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lloyd Harris vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 57% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.